Extreme Climate Hazards in Malawi: The Importance of Collecting Historical Weather Data By Dale Corey and Ran Meng

Malawi is no stranger to extreme weather. Numerous climate hazards have plagued the country in the past 20 years, including flooding, droughts, storms and large temperature fluctuations. These conditions have caused loss of life, decline in crop yield and severely hindered livestock production. Extreme weather has had long-term effects on public health, food security, economic growth, natural resources and energy, which collectively have affected the country's integrity.

Malawi, like many other African countries, would benefit from sophisticated extreme climate projections which, to be accurate, require at least 100 years of data. A number of issues, such as incomplete modeling initiatives run at universities, political unrest and shutdown of weather stations have caused gaps in information collection. In addition, lack of funding, unwillingness of the government to share information and the lack of an authoritative body for validation of data has contributed to the lack of comprehensive climate data for the country.

The Climate for Development in African Programme (ClimDev Africa), under development since April 2006, was launched on October 13, 2010 at the Seventh African Development Forum. Designed to improve weather data analysis for the African continent, ClimDev Africa was established by several United Nations (UN) agencies and the International Council for Science. Sponsored by the UN Economic Commission for Africa and the African Union Commission, ClimDev Africa has already put $30 million USD into African regional forecasting centers and has helped Africa to establish a position at the UN's climate-change talks. ClimDev Africa's main goal is to establish and upgrade weather observing systems to expand the capacity for analyzing and interpreting data and strengthen existing African institutions.

For many years IEDRO has been working with Malawi to rescue the country's historic weather data. Recently, heavy floods have ravaged the country with the threat of other extreme conditions on the way. Using this historic data, the country can better predict extreme weather events, thus allowing the country to prepare by improving building standards, changing community planning, as well as by giving warnings and organizing evacuations. Such efforts would reduce loss of life and property. The Malawi government would thus help stabilize the country for future generations.

References

Author Unknown. AFRICA: Thinking big on climate change modeling. Accessed 20 June 2011.  Irinnews.org

Author Unknown. Malawi. Accessed 20 June 2011.  Adaptationlearning.net

Muwamba, E. Malawi Vulnerable to Climate Change? Accessed 20 June 2011.  Nationmw.net

Ngozo, C. MALAWI. Climate Change Is Changing Farming Methods. Accessed 20 June 2011.  Ipsnews.net

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In Memory of the Climate Database Modernization Program

IEDRO would like to recognize the efforts of the Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP), an agency that has worked for over ten years to preserve and enhance the viability of climate data. Due to 2011 budget cuts however, the program was sadly eliminated.

Researchers understand the need for and value of high-quality data. Research also requires that data and results be open and reproducible. The CDMP program enhanced the usability and overall research value of digitized information by providing a partnership between the open-access National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and private industry for the imaging and keying of paper and microfilm records. CDMP's ninety-seven tasks for FY 2010 were spread over seven NOAA organizations.

The program produced almost 56 million images and over nine terabytes of data available through the contractor developed Environmental Document Access and Display System software. The scope of CDMP's efforts involved preserving environmental data ranging from the depths of the ocean to the top of the ionosphere. The program supplied resources to many data preservation projects, including digitizing surface and upper air measurements, analyzing weather observations and scanning photos and graphs that tracked glacier size, solar activity and old weather maps.

CDMP services supported current and significant scientific issues; one being climate change and variability. The historical records CDMP digitized contained surface observations, e.g., surface temperature and precipitation, and upper air observations, and provided critical information for understanding the strengths of, and improvements needed for, modeling the earth's atmosphere and land processes. Furthering this understanding has led to improvements in the way science is incorporated into models. The atmosphere and its processes extend to and require global and solar information which CDMP provided.

IEDRO has been honored to partner with CDMP in our joint efforts to provide useful climate data to weather scientists whose work reduces undue suffering and loss of life from natural disasters and climate change. We will work to play a larger role in the preservation and improved availability of at-risk environmental data; however we recognize that the sizeable efforts achieved by CDMP will be hard to match. The scientific community and the world at-large will miss the notable efforts made by CDMP.

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Historical Data Projects by the Climate Database Modernization Program

Throughout history, although modern communication and storage devices were not readily available – scientists, travelers and seafarers have made many valuable records and observations in journals, logbooks, antiquated formats of paper and microfilm. Of recent years, hurricanes and floods that have ravaged the United States bring to the forefront just how fragile, historical data spanning hundreds of years is being stored in warehouses, basements and remote libraries. In 2004 alone there were 15 named storms and nine hurricanes in the Atlantic basin; and as much as 50 years worth of data were ruined in flood zones. The threat of data deterioration continues not only in the United States, but internationally as the world faces continual weather hazards where the deepest impact is on developing nations that lack support and funding.

Climate change can only be quantified by comparing data from the past against the present to distinguish between a cyclical period and one where significant changes are occurring. Thus, an accurate and widely available database of historical data is necessary for accurate analyses.

The expansiveness of the ocean provides a challenge for scientists and researchers to collect data even now; however, CDMP has collected data from logbooks of the British East India Company who operated in the 1700s and 1800s. Based on the location of where each observation was taken, the atmosphere from those periods has been reconstructed.

Another fascinating project, the Ludlum Collection, contains observations of daily temperature and precipitation observations documented by founding fathers, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson. Through the CDMP's efforts, this data was made available online and openly accessible to all.

The Shoreline Vectorization Program was dedicated to digitizing shoreline maps and aerial photographs. These maps were correlated with locations where precise global coordinates were known. By overlaying digitized maps from different periods, researchers could track changing shorelines. Groups have used this data to analyze shoreline management and coastal erosion, as well as land falls from hurricanes. Using data even from 1918, for example, U.S. Geological Survey scientists were able to understand the effects a tsunami had on the Puerto Rican coastline.

From keying in marine meteorological observations made by Japanese whaling fleets in the 1900s to collecting Russian Empire historical data contributed by foreign scientists, the CDMP's focus was very much on a global scale, working closely with African and Central American countries among others.

The CDMP collected data in a variety of formats (images, maps, paper archives, etc.) with a wide range of applications, to benefit climate and environmental research, but industry as well as other sectors. For example, Bycatch Reduction Devices (BRD) which are installed in fishing gear, allow for the escape of alive, unwanted species such as turtles and dolphins. The greatest challenge in selecting a BRD is in the variations of species size and composition. Other factors include varying amounts of bycatch depending on the season and locations of the fishing grounds. Data collected on the design of BRDs and their placement in fishing gear helped to preserve rare and endangered species and to maintain a safe threshold of fish stock for the industry.

The CDMP's efforts and accomplishments have brought to light, the significance and necessity to continue the digitization of historical environmental and climate data. The benefit this data does not only extend to the scientific and research communities but to insurance, energy and agriculture industries. Increasingly, a readily available database is an efficient source of information for congressmen, senators, state legislators and the policy makers of the world.

IEDRO will strive to continue the efforts made by CDMP in the recognition that it is only with a rich body of data, from the past through to the present, that accurate and meaningful climate decisions can be made to serve the world, whether it is the environment, the economy, or in helping to save lives and the ecology.

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• Persons to build foreign language versions of our website. Fluency in other languages is not required. The site is in Dreamweaver.
• A Public Relations deputy manager – energetic, dedicated person desired.
• Persons to develop and maintain networking sites, such as Facebook, and Plaxo. Specifically, we need someone to develop a Plaxo site.
• Translators – Russian and Mandarin are especially needed.
• Software Developers:

We are building a web-based program that will need a database in the back end. Suggested software include: MySQL 4 or 5, PHP 4 or 5, CakePHP framework (but of course a good developer can use other software) and Linux Server using Hostgator.

We also are developing a program made in Java, WX Widget and WX Python built on Linux networking designed to read strip chart weather data. The program has been built to read precipitation records and now needs to be developed for other types of data.

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Managing Editors

 Pennell Paugh

 Ran Meng

Developers and Designers

Manager...............Silvana Gabriell

Writers/Editors

 Teddy Allen

 Dale Elizabeth Corey

 Richard Crouthamel

 Ran Meng

 Aura Lawson-Alonso

Photographs/Graphics

 Pennell Paugh

 Vivi da Silva

Translators

Coordinators
Dario Di Franco

Pennell Paugh

Spanish

 Miriam Muñoz

 Jennifer Rogel

Portuguese

Coordinator...............Tatiana Pinheiro

 Arthur Assumpção

 Talita Pinheiro

 Vivi da Silva

Mandarin Simplified

 Gang Fu

 Lu Valmidiano

French

 Mark Roberts

 Magali Cicujano

 Barbara Joly

Arabic

 Mohammed Juma

Italian

 Elisa Vitale

 Elisa De Boni

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By Aura Lawson-Alonso

Since the beginning of history, floods have been one of the deadliest natural disasters known to humans. We build our civilizations near rivers and oceans because they provide food, transportation and other essential necessities, yet these same bodies of water can claim lives as quickly as they support it. Although data rescue cannot prevent floods, a more complete historical climatic record does allow scientists to better predict weather patterns and prepare citizens for potentially disastrous events.

Recent human history has been hit by flooding. China was hit the hardest in the late 19th and mid-20th centuries. The floodwaters of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers caused death tolls in the millions among its urban populations as well as rural farmlands. In one instance, in 1931, an estimated 2.5-3.7 million people died and over 50 million were affected. Furthermore, the devastation caused by these floods was preceded by drought and famine from 1928 to 1930.

The Netherlands has a long history of successful flood mitigation through continuous improvement of their dyke systems. Although school children in the US grow up with the story of The Little Dutch Boy who selflessly plugs a leaking dyke with his finger, the reality of flooding is much more complex and devastating. Yet despite the dyke system, the Netherlands remains vulnerable to flooding as demonstrated in the North Sea Flood of 1953 that claimed nearly 2,000 lives and a 1995 threat that displaced more than 200,000 people.

In more recent times, flooding in the US Midwest has proven that natural disasters know no boundaries. Multiple US states including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, and Wisconsin have been seriously affected by flooding from 2007 to the present. The 2010 Tennessee flood devastation was estimated to occur only once every 1,000 years. Despite evacuations and preparations in these states, the flooding has caused billions of dollars worth of property damage and countless psychological stresses for those affected.

This is only a sampling of flood events that have occurred throughout the last century. Technology and community planning have allowed us to take precautions that have greatly reduced the risk of death and property damage. Nevertheless, as human activity continues to alter the environment, there is a growing risk of flooding due to urbanization and agriculture that strip the land of natural catchment areas. Additionally, humans are more vulnerable to flood risk from rising sea levels and fluctuating weather patterns.

To mitigate flood damage, citizens must develop long and short-term emergency preparedness and response plans. Preventive measures against flooding can include structural, economic, and environmental considerations. Flood control structures such as dams and dykes, flood resistant buildings, insurance plans, watershed protection and the use of flood plains are some of the primary precautions that governments and residents may draw on to protect their communities from the disastrous influence of flood waters. The need to better understand the history of climate is more pressing than ever. The knowledge to develop and implement precautionary measures stems from the scientific community's ability to gather and interpret data.

IEDRO strives to connect the dots by rescuing and digitizing sparse meteorological records that otherwise would be lost. These historical data cannot be replicated and are essential to identifying trends that may prepare us for natural disasters. In its goal to gather raw data, IEDRO can help scientists provide more accurate lifesaving flood forecasts and arm communities with information required for making adequate structures and community plans. A cost-effective method of gathering weather records, data rescue is a priceless way to safeguard human lives and well-being.

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Ex-Manager of CDMP, Tom Ross, Joins IEDRO

IEDRO is pleased to announce an addition to our staff. Tom is a meteorologist who recently retired from federal service. He was senior forecaster at Accu-Weather Inc, for nearly 10 years before he began his Federal service. His last position was with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He managed NOAA's Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP) at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). He has expressed an interest in being our liaison with NCDC.

CDMP's main task was to support NOAA's mission to collect, integrate, assimilate, and effectively manage earth observations on a global scale ranging from atmospheric, weather, and climate observations to oceanic, coastal, and marine life observations. The CDMP program rescued climate and environmental data that was archived at NOAA facilities. Once the data were converted to an electronic format, NOAA made them available to researchers and other interested parties.

Tom has been involved in educational and community outreach. He increased the center's visibility in educational as well as professional science related venues. He also was involved in climate monitoring for several years creating and updating a monthly popular "Climate Watch" series. He developed the "Billion Dollar U.S. Disaster" list in the mid 1990s which is still one of the best known climate products. He did numerous local, national radio and TV media interviews. He owns High Country Nursery - specializing in growing Japanese maples, conifers, roses and other fine landscape plants and trees in Fairview, NC.

Climate Information for Managing Risks Conference:

This summer has proven productive so far and continues to hold promise with upcoming journeys. The first trip began in late May at the Climate Information for Managing Risks conference in Orlando, Florida. This meeting allowed IEDRO to introduce the concept of data rescue and digitization to the participants who were unfamiliar with the process. Networking was productive. Teddy met many prospective partners, both domestic and international.

El Salvador Project Site Visit:

The second stage on the IEDRO world tour included a visit to the National Meteorological Station (SNET) in San Salvador, El Salvador. The meeting helped to further progress towards digitizing their precipitation strip charts, which exceeds 300,000 charts. Teddy identified additional valuable data contained in shelves of books and cabinets. The site lacks the human resources categorize, organize and facilitate the digitization process; an obstacle not unique to El Salvador.

Teddy was able to discuss related climate impacts on farming that could benefit from additional rescued data digitized into the modern record. El Salvador agriculture suffers from a variable mid-summer rainfall reduction known locally as the "canicula," which is especially pronounced in the southeast region of the country near San Miguel. The canicula (the Dog Star) is the constellation that is apparent in the Central American and Caribbean sky during the mid-summer precipitation pattern, usually around July. Another term, the "veranillo" which means "little summer" refers to the same precipitation pattern that has a mid-summer minimum.

More available local digitized data on the canicula could help to improve understanding and aid in mitigating its adverse effects. Along with the canicula, flash floods also affect the livelihood and economic prosperity of the people; making the need for increased data towards their flash flood warning system more important than ever!

Fourth Biannual Colloquium on Climate and Health:

Sponsored by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Center for Disease Control in Boulder, Colorado this conference was the mid-way point on Teddy's whirlwind tour. From July 11 – 15, a large group of interdisciplinary participants representing state agencies, international meteorological stations, universities, and national agencies met to address the subject of vector born diseases and human health connections with climate. The stringent need for digitized data in the developing world was a major topic. Like in Orlando, many valuable relationships were forged that will prove to be valuable assets in the near future as the international research community organizes towards increased data rescue and digitization programs.

Future Plans:

Visits to the Caribbean Islands of Dominica, Barbados, and Trinidad to meet with local farmers are planned for August. Summer rainfall variability and its impact on vegetation will be discussed with various members of the agricultural sector, including farmers and forecasters. Initial steps to organize the data rescue program in Barbados will take place in addition to other exploratory missions in the other islands.

The summer tour will conclude with a site visit to the Dominican Republic to update their computing and equipment needs. As you can see, there is unlimited enthusiasm and a never ending demand for the data rescue and digitization process. IEDRO has successfully identified numerous opportunities this summer for both collaboration and progress towards this endeavor.

In mid-July, our Executive Director, Rick Crouthamel, accompanied by a fellow Rotarian, Anthony Clarke, traveled throughout "The Warm Heart of Africa," for ten days. They gathered information about the historic environmental data needs of the Malawian people and met with officials from the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services.

The Republic of Malawi is one of IEDRO's first data rescue and digitization (DR&D) cooperating countries. Nearly 14 million people inhabit a narrow strip of land of about 45,000 square miles (about the size of Pennsylvania). The country is nestled between three other DR&D cooperating countries - Zambia to the northwest, Tanzania to the northeast and Mozambique on the remaining sides. Lake Malawi forms most of its eastern border. Lake Malawi is sometimes called the Calendar Lake as it is about 365 miles long and 52 miles wide. (Wikipedia)

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world with a Gross Domestic Product of less than $350/person. Other than HIV, water-borne diseases are the most significant public health problem with diseases such as malaria, yellow fever, hepatitis and amoebic dysentery the most common. These diseases are promulgated through a lack of potable water supplies with many villagers walking 2-3 km to drink from polluted sources. Standing water during the lengthy rainy season provides breeding areas for mosquitoes and acts as a conduit to spread diseases. Thus, the management of water resources is most important to the improvement of the standard of living of all Malawians.

Bore Hole Project:

The first part of the trip focused on the water needs of the Malawians. As part of a Rotary International effort, Rick and Anthony visited a school in Nkhamenya, in the northern part of the country where donations funded the drilling of a well.

The project provided a safe and consistent water supply to over 700 school children who heretofore had to walk 2-3 km to get a drink from a polluted pond. Providing a drilled well assisted the area with responsible water management by not only giving the residents a safe source of drinking water, it also encouraged the Malawians to drain their former drinking water sources – the non-potable, mosquito-laden ponds. The hope of the project was to help stem the spread of insect-borne diseases that affect the region. As there is little or no rain from May through October the residents had to depend on a water supply even though it was polluted.

Data Rescue and Digitization Project Agreement:

The first step is to understand what water resources exist now and what water resources will likely be needed during the next five to ten years. This analysis should be based on a complete analysis of precipitation that has occurred over the past few hundred years, including the amounts, the intensities, the durations and the trends. Unfortunately, although these data are available at the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, they are not usable in their present form. Detailed records, which are ink traces on analog charts called "strip charts," graphically show the precipitation characteristics, including amount, rate, intensity, duration.

To extract the detailed precipitation information from these charts manually, an experienced technician would have to spend at least 30 minutes on each chart. Considering that Malawi has at least 20,000 – 30,000 of these charts to be digitized, another method had to be found. IEDRO over the past three years, using Malawi precipitation charts as a base, has developed a software program that will in seconds take the scanned images of these charts and digitize the data at 5 minute intervals (288 values per day) and do so more accurately.

After Dr. Crouthamel's meeting with our Program Manager, Martin, he was privileged to have the opportunity to meet with the Deputy Director of the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, Mr.Gray K. Munthali as well as the soon to be retired Director, Dr. Donald Kamdonyo - one of DR&D's international champions. Discussions with Mr. Munthali and Dr. Kamdonyo included several topics of interest both to the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services and to IEDRO. As soon as adequate funding is found, all parties have agreed establish a data keying facility (similar to the one operated by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, CDMP contractors but smaller). A start-up project will be developed at IEDRO Headquarters in Deale, MD to establish a prototype for additional keying facilities. Once programming and processes are established, we will locate operations in Malawi under the management of the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services. The Service would provide the facility, power, and security.

IEDRO will provide equipment and training for the Malawi keying facility to scan hydrometeorological strip charts and enter the metadata, first for all Malawi charts, and then for other southern African countries. The scanned images would be sent on DVDs to IEDRO Headquarters for digitization and returned to the countries of origin.

As a start Dr. Crouthamel brought back several thousand strip charts from his trip, along with two other valuable hydrometeorological data sets – our first Atmospheric Pressure Strip Charts (barograms) which will be the next parameter class to be digitized – and a set of microfiche weather observations that IEDRO plans to have imaged before the data on the deteriorating slides become unreadable. These data are inspiring IEDRO to start several new digitization efforts.

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